Obama is the only major candidate who supports tough, direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions. Now is the time to pressure Iran directly to change their troubling behavior. Obama would offer the Iranian regime a choice. If Iran abandons its nuclear program and support for terrorism, we will offer incentives like membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments, and a move toward normal diplomatic relations. If Iran continues its troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and political isolation. Seeking this kind of comprehensive settlement with Iran is our best way to make progress.
But, this is exactly the approach followed by the E-3 (U.K., France, Germany), the E-3/EU (add the Eu foreign minister), and the permament members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1; the E-3 plus USA, China, and Russia). The story can rehashed with a simple search on any news service, I used CNN.
On March 11, 2005 CNN reported that the U.S. had dropped its objections to Iran applying for WTO membership read the story here
As CNN reported on August 5th 2005:
cooperation on nuclear matters would be enhanced between Iran and the EU-3 -- Britain, France and Germany -- allowing Iran access to the international nuclear technologies market. The EU-3 also would "fully support long-term co-operation in the civil nuclear field between Iran and Russia," the summary said.
In February, Russia signed a deal with Iran to transfer nuclear fuel to Iran's $800 million power plant reactor in the southern city of Bushehr and move the spent fuel back to Russia.
Despite this Iran resumed nuclear enrichment just three days later on August 8th, 2005. On January 6th, 2006 CNN reported that Iran had removed UN IAEA seals from its facilities and resumed nuclear research activities. Russia stepped into the fold. Russia offered to supply nuclear fuel for Iran's power generation facilities and in late February 2006 Iran rejected this offer. Despite reports in January that the U.S. and EU-3 had given up negotiating with Iran, in June of 2006 EU foreign minister Javier Solanna was dispatched to Tehran with an offer from the five permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany (Thus, this is the EU 3, USA, China and Russia). Iran refused to discuss the offer and pressed ahead with its enrichment program bringing on line at least 3000 centrifuges. Almost two years later, in July 2008, the P5+1 tried again. But, Iran refuses to halt its enrichment activities. According to news reports on CNN, Iran now has over 4,000 centrifuges and is planning to bring the total to 6,000 soon. Sanctions enacted by the UN Security Council have had no effect on the Iranians nuclear ambitions.
So the question for Senator Obama is: While will this work now when it hasn't worked for the last 4 years? It cannot be that adding a direct voice for the US at the table will change the dynamic. The Iranians apparently WANT the capability to enrich Uranium and are unwilling to negotiate that right away. Carrots and sticks have not worked for the Europeans, the Russians, or the UN Security Council. Why does Obama believe they will work now?
Because of his charming personality? Or maybe because of his rock star status in Europe?
If Senator Obama wants to be President, he will need to articulate a strategy for dealing with Iran that is something more than what has been tried and failed for the past four years. Principal and Policy bets he will not be up to the task.
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