Mike Gravel's Dumb Plan

Former Senator Mike Gravel (D - Alaska) is running for President. One of the major issues for this infamous leaker is direct election of the President by the population.

Let us be absolutely clear. This may be the dumbest idea ever.

It certainly sounds good. After all the U.S. is a democracy, and what could be more democratic than direct election of the President?

To understand this issue, one must understand the Electoral College and the reasons why the founders invented it. The electoral college's genius is that it accounts not only for population but also for geography (or perhaps more properly, geographical units). Each state is alloted a number of electors equal to the sum of its state senators and congressional representatives. Therefore, even the smallest and least populated states get at least 3 electoral college votes (for example, Rhode Island and Wyoming). The more populated states still have more votes. If one reads the Federalist Papers, the founders make it absolutely clear that the intention is to avoid mob rule.

What would a U.S. Presidential Election look like if Sen. Gravel's plan is enacted?

Answer: A very large power transfer from the country to the cities. Think of it this way. Sixty-one percent of the US population live within the top 100 MSAs, which occur in just 17 states. Only about 33% of the U.S. population voted in the 2004 election (official participation percentages based on eligible voters are higher). Under such a system, those living in the population centers have a huge incentive to vote and those in rural areas a huge incentive not to vote (what would be the use?).
Under this system you can forget about the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary. The incentive will be to campaign in the major cities in the major states. Near total control would be conferred on New York, California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts, and Maryland-D.C. Throw in Democratic strongholds in Washington, Oregon, and the other New England states and we would not see another Republican President for... well maybe never.
Here is an interesting applied example. In the 2000 election in the state of California, Al Gore won by something around 1.3 million votes. The former Vice-President won only 21 counties, California has 58 counties. His total margin of victory was accounted for by Los Angeles county and the counties in the Bay Area. To see a map of how little of California Gore actually won, see the following:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS
/state.php?f=0&year=2000&fips=6

Senator Gravel's argument is specious. A more logical argument is that California would be better off instituting its own version of the electoral college to ensure adequate representation of the other 75% of the state.

Good thing that Senator Gravel has less than a 1% chance of winning the Democrat nomination.